Guwahati, Feb 22: Nine out of 50 regions in the world facing high climate risk to a fragile physical infrastructure fall in India, according to a new ranking released on February 20.
Bihar (22nd spot), Uttar Pradesh (25th), Assam (28th), Rajasthan (32nd), Tamil Nadu (36th), Maharashtra (38th), Gujarat (48th), Punjab (50th) and Kerala (52nd) are among the most vulnerable in the country, with the index identifying the economic capital Mumbai to be at notable risk as well.
The report, titled “Gross Domestic Climate Risk”, was released by the Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), a global organisation specializing in climate risk analysis for regions, banks, and companies. The index calculated the ‘physical climate risk’ to built environments such as buildings and properties across 2,600 States and provinces globally in 2050.
Physical risk refers to vulnerability from eight climate change events: heat waves, coastal flooding (and sea level rise), extreme wind, forest fire, soil movement (or other drought-related hazards), free thaw, and riverine and surface flooding. The report compared the risk across territories based on modeled projections of damage, using global climate models, local weather, and environmental data.
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Together, the index assigned an Aggregated Damage Ratio (ADR) to each region, which signifies the total damage a region’s built environment would sustain in 2050. A high ADR illustrates more peril. According to the report, Assam, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu, they had the highest ADR among other Indian States. Assam, in particular, would witness the maximum increase in climate risk: rising up to 330% by 2050 as compared to 1990.
Overall, India, China and the U.S. — “globally significant states” — are home to 80% of the most vulnerable cities and centres of economic activity worldwide. Two of China’s largest sub-national economies – Jiangsu and Shandong – top the global ranking; followed by the U.S. which has 18 regions in the top 100 list; including economically-important areas in Florida, Texas, and California.
Asia dominates the list largely, with 114 of the top 200 regions falling in the continent, with the mention of Pakistan, Indonesia, and most South East Asian countries.
Notably, the most damage posed to built infrastructure globally is caused by “riverine and surface flooding or flooding combined with coastal inundation”, the report pointed out.
Assam has witnessed an experienced exponential increase in flood events since 2011, and it had 15 of India’s 25 districts most vulnerable to climate change, the State’s State’s Science, Technology and Climate Change Minister Keshab Mahanta told the Assembly last September. Further, 11 of the 36 districts in Maharashtra were found to be “highly vulnerable” to extreme weather events, droughts, and dwindling water security, according to a 2021 report.
The Climate Risk Index in 2019 ranked countries based on their vulnerability to fatalities and economic losses, finding India to be the seventh-worst hit due to extreme weather events. Another report in 2022 by the Centre for Science and Environment found India recorded the most extreme weather events in 2022; there was a disaster on 247 out of 273 days between January 1 to September 30.
