1. IMD forecasts more “heatwave days” in May for northwest, east, and southern India.
2. Regions with intensified heatwave predictions coincide with upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
3. Increased heatwave occurrences pose challenges for electoral campaigns in affected regions.
Weather update, May 02: India’s northwest, parts of the east, and the southern peninsula are set to face an increased number of “heatwave days” this May, according to the latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
This surge in heatwave occurrences is expected to impact several regions gearing up for high-intensity electoral campaigns leading up to the scheduled voting in the Lok Sabha elections.
Heatwave Projections Across India
- Northwest and East India:
- Regions such as Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, and Bihar typically experience around three “heatwave days” in May. However, this year, IMD predicts an increase to five to seven such days.
- South Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, and Gujarat:
- These regions, which usually witness three “heatwave days,” are anticipated to have eight to eleven heatwave days this month.
Temperature Outlook and Heatwave Criteria
- IMD forecasts normal maximum temperatures across most of India, except certain regions where normal to below-normal temperatures are expected. Additionally, above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country.
-
Heatwave conditions are defined as maximum temperatures crossing 40°C in the plains, over 37°C in coastal areas, and beyond 30°C in hilly regions, with a deviation of 4.5 to 6.4°C above the average maximum.
Also Read: Orang National Park to Temporarily Close for Tourists from May 15 as Monsoon Precaution
Monsoon and Climate Patterns
- Rainfall Projections:
- May is expected to witness normal to above-normal rainfall in most regions of the country, ranging from 91-109% of the long-period average.
- El Niño and La Niña:
- El Niño conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific region but are likely to transition into neutral conditions at the onset of the monsoon season.
- Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also expected during the monsoon season, contributing to favorable rainfall patterns.
- La Niña, which typically results in above-average rainfall, is projected to establish around August.
April Climate Trends and Extreme Weather Events
- Warmest April Trends:
- Despite normal to below-normal temperatures in northwest India, April 2024 emerged as one of the warmest since 1901, particularly in eastern and southern peninsular India.
- The mean temperature for the country in April was 29.06°C, 0.76°C above normal.
- Extreme Weather Events:
- April witnessed several extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy rain, and thunderstorms, resulting in 32 reported deaths across different states.
Impact on Heatwave Patterns
- Prolonged Heatwaves:
- Unusually long heatwave spells were observed in April, affecting eastern India, southeast peninsular regions, Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and interior Karnataka.
- A prolonged dry spell, coupled with the absence of pre-monsoon thunderstorms and the presence of an anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal, contributed to the intensity and duration of heat waves.
The forecasted increase in heatwave days underscores the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of extreme heat on public health and safety, particularly in vulnerable regions.
