Bay of Bengal

1. A low-pressure area is forecasted to form over the southwest Bay of Bengal by May 22.
2. It may evolve into a cyclone, concentrating into a depression over central parts by May 24.
3. This potential cyclone could signify the onset of the pre-monsoon season.

Kolkata, May 21: A low-pressure area is expected to develop over the southwest Bay of Bengal around May 22, potentially evolving into a cyclone, officials revealed.

They anticipate it will move northeastwards initially and concentrate into a depression over central parts of the Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 24. This could mark the first cyclone of the pre-monsoon season.

“If the cyclone moves towards the Indian coast, then it will support the monsoon, but if it moves towards Myanmar, it can negatively impact the monsoon onset,” an official stated anonymously.

Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, highlighted the conditions conducive to cyclone formation.

He mentioned warmer sea surface temperatures and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving to the south of the Bay of Bengal as key factors. These conditions, coupled with persistent high sea surface temperatures, provide the necessary heat and moisture for cyclone formation.

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However, Koll noted that the progression of the monsoon towards the north could suppress vertical formation, potentially resulting in a monsoon depression instead of a cyclone.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts the monsoon onset over Kerala around May 31.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over North Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal on May 24 and 25, with squally winds expected over the central Bay of Bengal from May 23 morning.

Sea conditions are also expected to deteriorate, with rough to very rough seas over central and North Bay of Bengal from May 23 and May 24 onwards, respectively.

Fishermen are advised to avoid venturing into these areas from the specified dates, and those already at sea are urged to return to the coast before May 23.

Meanwhile, heat wave conditions are expected to persist over parts of Northwest India, north Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat over the next five days.

Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, and northwest Madhya Pradesh have already experienced heat wave to severe heat wave conditions.

Warm night conditions were observed in some parts of Rajasthan, with Najafgarh in Delhi recording the highest maximum temperature at 47.8°C on Sunday, followed by Agra at 47.7°C in West Uttar Pradesh.