1. IMD forecasts ongoing cold wave to severe cold wave conditions in northern India for the next three days.
2. Dense to very dense fog is expected to persist in the region for the next five days, according to IMD.
3. Meteorologists suggest a potential intense western disturbance (WD) around January 26, but IMD’s bulletin doesn’t confirm it.
Weather Update, Jan 20: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts the continuation of cold wave to severe cold wave conditions across northern India over the next three days. Additionally, the forecast includes dense to very dense fog prevailing over the region for the next five days.
While some meteorologists anticipate an intense western disturbance (WD) affecting the Western Himalayan region around January 26, potentially bringing snowfall, the IMD’s bulletin does not mention the WD.
The severe weather in northwest India, including the capital, is attributed to three main factors: the absence of active western disturbances, prevailing El Nino conditions, and a strong jet stream.
The lack of western disturbances during December and January, typically numbering five to seven, has contributed to about an 80% rainfall deficiency in December and no recorded rain or snow in January.
Since December 29, maximum temperatures have been 5-8°C below normal over the north Indian plains. While temperatures briefly entered the normal range on January 8 due to a western disturbance, minimum temperatures have dipped below 4°C at several stations in northwest India from January 12 to 17.
The low number of active western disturbances this winter has led to exceptionally dry conditions in the upper reaches of the western Himalayas, usually covered by snow during this period. The absence of active WDs also means no disruption to the daily development of fog conditions.
The scarcity of active WDs is partly attributed to El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific. Additionally, strong jet stream winds, with speeds of about 250 to 320 kmph at approximately 12 km above sea level, have led to the subsidence of cold air, intensifying the chill both at night and during the day.
The IMD‘s bulletin on Friday indicates that such conditions are likely to persist for the next 3-4 days, and minimum temperatures remain 2-4°C below normal in isolated pockets of south Haryana, south Uttar Pradesh, and north Rajasthan.
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The lowest minimum temperature recorded on Friday was 2.4°C in Bikaner (West Rajasthan) and Kanpur (East Uttar Pradesh). Cold wave conditions prevailed in isolated pockets of Punjab, East Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, and north Madhya Pradesh.
A cold wave is declared when the minimum temperature is 4.5 to 6.4°C below normal, or the actual minimum temperature is less than 4°C.
A severe cold wave is declared when the minimum temperature is over 6.5°C below normal or the actual minimum temperature is less than 2°C.
Additionally, a cold day is declared when the maximum temperature is 4.5 to 6.4°C below normal, and a severe cold day is declared when the maximum temperature is 6.5°C below normal.
The forecast suggests that these cold conditions are likely to continue for five more days due to strong jet stream winds.
Dense to very dense fog was recorded over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, some parts of East Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand. Isolated pockets of Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, and Tripura experienced dense fog.
Cold-day to severe cold-day conditions prevailed in many parts of Uttar Pradesh, some parts of Bihar, West Rajasthan, and isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, north Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and East Rajasthan.
Meanwhile, the private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted snowfall in hill states from January 26, offering some respite from the predominantly dry winter.
“Cheer up, an intense western disturbance may dump heavy snowfall over J&K, Himachal, Uttarakhand, and Ladakh from January 26 and may continue into the first week of February. A new lease of life to tourism, apple, and saffron crops,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.
